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COPA AMERICA 2024
EURO 2024

This website offers a free downloadable MS Excel template and helpful guides to ensure a fun and engaging prediction pool for this year's major tournaments.

Soccer Field

COPA AMERICA 2024
&
EURO 2024
SPREADSHEET

The Prediction Pool Playbook below guides you on how to organise a prediction pool for major soccer tournaments.

The Prediction Pool Playbook

This section explains how to organise the pool. Free free to contact me if you have any questions.

HOW DO I ORGANISE A POOL?

There are two main approaches: using online forms or spreadsheets.

 

What to look out for

The approach you take depends on the time you want to spend on administrating it, the complexity you desire, the cost, the number of participants and whether participants will be asked to guess scores from the first round.  

The more participants you expect, the more you should focus on automating both the point calculations and the gathering of data. 
 

Forms vs Spreadsheets

  • Forms: For a straightforward approach, I quite like how Derrick Muiru uses Microsoft Power BI tools to create a clean approach to collect predictions and attribute points. 

  • Spreadsheets: For predicting first-round scores, a spreadsheet might be easier. Ask participants to fill their predictions in (feel free to use the one linked above) and send/upload it prior to first match of the tournament.

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Additional Tips

  • Share predictions with all participants a day or two prior to the tournament starting so that there is no doubt of foul play.

  • Update points regularly to maintain the fun aspect. 

  • No need to reinvent the wheel. Use the spreadsheet provided above to organise your own competition.

  • Need help? Feel free to contact me to organise it for you - click here for more.

HOW IS THE SCORAGOL APPROACH?

Each competition is split into two stages: the group stage (where matches are known) and a knock-out (where the matches are known once the previous round finishes). Prior to any tournament starting, participants are asked to

  • predict the scores of the matches during the first round using a spreadsheet, 

  • select four teams* using an online form, and

  • Select the winner using an online form.

*The selection of the four teams has a restriction, in that one has to select at least one top-tier team, one middle-tier team and one longshot.

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First Round
All games in the first round are known and therefore participants try to predict outcome per match as follows:

  • 2 points if you guess the outcome

  • 4 points if you guess the outcome and score difference (given a team wins) 

  • 6 points if you guess the exact score

  • 3 points if you guess the outcome as a draw

Say that you predicted the score for Germany 3 - 0 Scotland. If the actual result is 3-0 for Germany, then you gain 6 points. If Germany win with a goal difference of 3 (say 4-1, 5-2) then you gain 4 points. If Germany win but with a goal difference which is not +3 (say 1-0, 3-1), then you gain 2 points. No points are gained if Germany does not win.

Now for another example, say you predicted Brazil 1- 1 Colombia. If the result is 1-1 then you gain 6 points. However, in the case of a draw which is not 1-1 (say 0-0 or 3-3), then you will gain 3 points. The reasoning behind this is that the goal difference will always be 0 in a draw. Obviously if the game does not end in a draw, you do not win any points.

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All Rounds
The exact combination of matches for second round are difficult to predict at the start of the competition, especially for EURO 2024. Therefore, the selection of the four teams will lead to points 25 points for each additional stage reached and an additional 25 points for picking up the winner .
(so for example if Brazil was a selected team from the top-tier teams, if they win the Copa America, you get 100 points as they reached the quarters, semis, final and won the cup. If they lose in the final you get 75 points. If you further selected them as the winners you get an extra 25 points!)

CAN/SHOULD WE BET REAL MONEY?

Scoragol is not licensed to receive real-money wagers. This site intended to provide general information, and you are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations regarding gambling in your area. Rather than money, consider the following alternatives: Bragging rights, small gifts, food and drinks, or a unique trophy! 

Home: The Prediction Pool Playbook

About me

I'm an actuary by day and an academic at heart. For years, I've been organizing a prediction pool for friends, leveraging my background in financial risk and sports betting to create a fun and engaging experience.
Fueled by my passion for the sport and a background in financial risk assessment, I've published research in finance, risk and sports betting.
Now, I'm thrilled to share the tools and tips I've developed over the years, and I'm happy to organize prediction pools for you too!  In return, I simply ask for a donation to a worthy charity.

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